Wemby's rookie season comes to a close and lottery race scenarios
Saturday the San Antonio Spurs announced Victor Wembanyama will sit out the regular season finale against Detroit due to right ankle injury management.
Victor Wembanyama’s rookie season came to a wrap Saturday, when the San Antonio Spurs published their injury report and Wemby’s name was on the list with right ankle injury management.
Along with Victor, 7 other Spurs players are out due to injuries, and Zach Collins is questionable to play in the finale Sunday against Detroit, with a left thumb contusion.
Let’s look back at where Wemby finished in his rookie season, a season that may likely be the floor in projecting his unknown ceiling.
(1) Wemby’s traditional stats
Wemby finishes his rookie season by showing he was able to be durable, playing in 71 games and logging 29.7 minutes per game. Wembanyama finished with 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.7 turnovers, 1.2 steals, 3.6 blocks, and 2.2 fouls per game.
Here’s where Wemby ranked Top-10 among rookies and in the NBA when looking at some of those numbers:
21.4 Points per game (1st among rookies)
10.6 Rebounds per game (1st among rookies, 8th in NBA)
3.9 Assists per game (4th among rookies)
1.2 Steals per game (Tied for 1st among rookies)
3.6 Blocks per game (1st in NBA and among rookies)
Double-doubles 43 (1st among rookies, tied for 9th in NBA)
Triples-double 2 (1st among rookies, tied for 10th in NBA)
When looking at his 3.6 blocks per game, the second closest player to Wemby in the NBA was the trio of Walker Kessler, Anthony Davis, and Brook Lopez, who all averaged 2.4 blocks per game.
When diving into the double-doubles for rookies, the second player behind Victor in double-doubles was Chet Holmgren at 23. No other rookie tallied a triple-double this season.
(2) Where was Wemby elite compared to other bigs?
Using data from CleaningTheGlass.com, let’s examine where Victor finished in the 90th percentile or above on both ends of the floor compared to other bigs.
Usage 30.9% (98th)
Assist percentage 21.4% (93rd)
Corner three accuracy 55% (100th)
Drawing fouls on the floor 3.8% (99th)
Block percentage 5.9% (100th)
Defensive rebounds on field goals 27.1% (97th)
On/Off on defense -9.3 points per 100 (97th)
Though the Spurs’ team defensive rating will finish in the bottom-10 at 22nd, Wemby’s presence when on the floor is illustrated by that on/off defensive number. Teams scored 9.3 fewer points per 100 possessions when Victor was out on the floor for San Antonio.
Wemabanyama’s 30.9% usage also shows he was getting to run the offense near the level of some of the best players in the league.
(3) How many times did Wemby (insert stat) in a game?
Score 30+ points in a game (11 games - season high was 40 points)
Tally 5+ blocks in a game (24 games - season high was 10 blocks)
Collect 15+ rebounds in a game (9 games - season high was 20 rebounds twice)
Collect 5+ assists in a game (24 games - season high was 10 assists)
Collect 5+ steals in a game (3 games - season high was 6 steals)
Wemby was made the teams starting center on December 8 against the Bulls. From that point, 22 of his 24 games with 5+ blocks took place with him as the starting five. 8 of his 9 games with 15+ rebounds also took place when he became the starting center for the team.
Going back to Wemby’s blocks, here’s the location of where his 254 blocks took place:
232 inside the paint on dunks, layups, floaters, hooks (91% of blocks)
13 on 2-point jumpers outside the paint (5% of blocks)
9 on 3-point jumpers (4% of blocks)
On the night of February 23 against the Lakers, Victor recorded a rare 5x5 game, when he finished with 27 points, 5 blocks, 10 rebounds, 8 assists, and 5 steals.
(4) Wemby shooting the ball in year one
Here’s a look at Wemby’s shot chart of his rookie season:
When we break this down, we see Victor took 51% of his shots in the paint, where he was efficient near the rim and overall in the paint, scoring over a point per shot. His next go-to shot was the three, where 33% of his looks came from. He rarely got to shoot corner 3s, but when he did, he was accurate there. His arc three will be one of the areas he’ll have to work on in the offseason, but he also saw his percentages improve as the season went along (graphic below).
Though he only got to attempt 47% of his 3s wide open, he scored over a point per shot when left wide open. One of his most dangerous shots is the pull-up three, a shot he’s very comfortable taking. 43% of Wemby’s 3-point shots were pull-up 3s and he nailed an efficient 38% of those looks in just his rookie season.
(5) Wemby changing his shot diet mid-season
Back on February 25, Wembanyama was asked where he’s seen improvement from himself at that point in the season.
“Shot selection and getting rid of more bad shots and shots where I settle for like floaters and mid-range shots,” responded Wembanyama.
Two comments on this quote. 1) Wemby’s response shows he’s aware of what modern analytics show - the floater and mid-range shots are the two LEAST efficient shots in basketball. 2) As the season progressed, Wemby started to take fewer and fewer of those inefficient shots. Just look at how he finished April.
(6) Lottery Race Scenarios for Sunday
Heading into the final Sunday of the regular season, here’s where the 1st through 6th worst teams by record stand:
The Spurs are currently tied with Portland for the 4th/5th worst record spots. Here is the final game for Charlotte, San Antonio, and Portland.
Hornets at Cavs - Cavs favored by 13.5
Pistons at Spurs - Spurs favored by 5.5
Trail Blazers at Kings - Kings favored by 16.5
In order to tie the Hornets for 3rd, the Spurs would need to lose to the Pistons and have the Hornets defeat the Cavs.
If the games go according to Vegas, the Spurs are likely to end up with the 5th worst record should they defeat Detroit, while on the other hand, Charlotte and Portland each lose their final game.
If Spurs end up in a two-way tie for the 3rd or 4th worst record spot, then a random drawing will have to conducted by the NBA to determine record placement going into the lottery.
If the Spurs end up in a three-way tie for 3rd, then a random drawing will have to happen as well to decide which team would get 3rd, 4th, and 5th worst record going into the lottery.