2025 Scouting Report: Ace Bailey

Who is Ace Bailey? What's his skill set? Who does he play like in the NBA?

On the Spurs Draft Board 3.0, Rutgers guard Dylan Harper had a perfect mock average of 2.0. The player behind Harper was his Rutgers teammate Ace Bailey, who had a mock average of 3.1.

You can read the full scouting report on Harper here, but now, let’s direct our attention to Bailey.

Who is Ace Bailey?

Photo credit: ScarletKnights.com

On paper, Bailey is listed as a 6’10”, 200 lb forward from Chattanooga, Tennessee. He finished his freshman season at Rutgers before declaring for the NBA Draft. Bailey is still 18, and he won’t turn 19 until August, when the NBA season begins two months later. By age 22, Bailey will have racked up three years of NBA experience before he can start negotiating an extension for his rookie-scale contract.

Physical Measurements from NBA Draft Combine

• Height without shoes: 6’7.5” (14th among 27 forwards)

• Weight: 202.8 lbs. (24th among 27 forwards)

• Standing reach: 8’11” (10th among 27 forwards)

• Wingspan: 7’0.5” (7th among 27 forwards)

• Draft Express Physical Comps: Jayson Tatum

Stats

• Games: 30 (Started 30), played in 94% of team games

• Minutes: 33.3

Offense

Scoring

• Points per game: 17.6

• Shots per game: 14.7 (46% FG)

• 3-point attempts: 4.5 (34.6% FG)

• 2-point attempts: 10.2 (51.1% FG)

• Shot diet: 69% of attempts on 2s, 31% of attempts on 3s

• Free throw attempts: 3.6 (69.2% FT%)

Passing and Rebounding

• Assists: 1.3

• Turnovers: 2

• Offensive Rebounds: 2.1

Defense

• Steals: 1

• Blocks: 1.3

• Personal fouls: 2.8

• Defensive rebounds: 5.1 (Total: 7.2)

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Three Key Questions

As mentioned in this newsletter, one of the books I’ve been reading and applying to my research and analysis is Basketball Beyond Paper by Dean Oliver.

In one of the chapters, Dean writes about his experience working for an NBA team, and when the time was approaching for the draft, he provided three key questions on the scouting reports for each draft prospect. I will also use these questions here, based on my observations after watching film on Bailey.¹

(1) What does this player do to get into an NBA game?

On Offense

• Multi-level scoring - Bailey is a microwave scorer who can score from all three levels. 69% of his shot attempts came from two-point range, where the not-so-common-anymore mid-range is part of his game. Bailey has different ways of using the mid-range, whether it’s off pull-up action, taking his defender off the dribble, or being able to fade away with his back to the basket. Bailey can post from mid-range with either his left or right hand, and he’s comfortable and has the height to spin to his left or right in making fading jumpers. He can also turn and square up his defender, throw a jab step, and make a contested mid-ranger. Bailey can also go inside, where he drives in and throws up some jumpers and floaters just a few feet from the rim if they’re contested. On the break, he uses his length to finish monster dunks from outside the restricted area, or if he’s off-ball on the baseline, he can also run in and finish an alley-oop dunk. One of the other ways he scores the ball is with his offensive rebounding and putback ability. Out on the break, if he’s not out in front, he’ll follow a teammate to get the putback opportunity if his teammate misses. If there’s a possession where someone shoots and he wasn’t standing in the corner, he can use his length to get offensive boards for putbacks, too. With teammate Dylan Harper drawing attention from the defense, Bailey got good looks inside while occupying the dunker spot. If he caught the ball in that area, it was one dribble, and he was finishing a power dunk. If he’s not going to his 2-point shot, then Bailey is launching from three. He shoots a lot of pull-up off the dribble threes, using his height and length to make contesting his jumper difficult for defenders. With Bailey playing the 4 for Rutgers, he could pick-and-pop on some sets, setting the pick, and then popping out to the arc for the spot-up look with the 1-2 shooting motion. One of the other ways Bailey gets to his 3-point shot is using screens or dribble hand off action to catch the ball, and immediately putting up the shot, usually going to his right.