Diving into the Chris Paul-Spurs rumor

Will the San Antonio Spurs try to add Chris Paul? Let's dive into the latest rumor.

The Rumor: In his Saturday morning write-up, when providing the latest on the Golden State Warriors missing the playoffs, fellow Substacker and plugged-in NBA reporter Marc Stein wrote this at the end of his segment on the Warriors:

A potential team to watch, should Paul and the Warriors part ways, is San Antonio. Among the early personnel rumbles in circulation: The Spurs could emerge as a Paul suitor if they decide to pursue some veteran know-how on a short-term contract basis to furnish presumptive Rookie of the Year winner Victor Wembanyama with more seasoned help in Year 2.

As Stein also wrote, Warriors Head Coach Steve Kerr has said he would like to see Paul return to the Dubs, and Paul also has interest in staying with the Warriors.

However, as Bobby Marks of ESPN recently wrote, if the Warriors ownership wants to get out of the luxury tax next season, one of the quickest paths would be to waive Paul’s non-guaranteed contract of $30 million for next season.

The Warriors have until June 28 to make a decision on whether or not to guarantee Paul’s contract for next season.

Should the Warriors not find a trade for Paul and end up waiving him by June 28, he would become an unrestricted free agent and this is where the Spurs could step in if they have interest. Using a question format, let’s explore some questions about the Paul-Spurs rumor.

If Paul did become a free agent, how much can the Spurs offer him to sign in San Antonio?

There are four salary ranges the Spurs are projected to have this offseason that they can offer a free agent:

• Veteran minimum ($3.3 million for a vet with over 10 years of experience like Paul)

• The room mid-level exception ($3.4 to $8 million), if the Spurs operate as a cap space team this offseason.

• The non-tax mid-level exception ($8.1 to $12.9 million), if the Spurs operate as an over the cap team this offseason.

• Cap space of $13 to $24.5 million depending on where the Spurs’ first round draft pick(s) land after the lottery.

At this point in his career, considering he came off the bench last season and was still productive, Paul would likely be looking for a salary range from a team in the exception ranges of $5.1 million (tax MLE) to $12.9 million (non-tax MLE).

Who was Paul as a player this season and how would he have compared to other Spurs guards and wings?

At 38 this season, Paul was able to play in 58 games for the Warriors with averages of 9.2 points, 3.9 rebounds, 6.8 assists (team leader), 1.3 turnovers, 1.2 steals (team leader), and 1.9 fouls in 26.4 minutes off the bench.

Paul’s shooting splits were (44.1%/37.1%/82.7%) on 8.1 shots, 3.6 three point attempts, and 0.9 free throw attempts.

Here’s Paul’s shot chart this past season:

Created by @PaulGarciaNBA

Paul was still efficient for his position in the mid-range and floater range. The fact that he only took 14 layup attempts shows that at this point in his career, he’s not going to be putting much pressure on the rim.

He shot 41% on arc 3s, but from the corners, he struggled. Like many of the current Spurs players, Paul would be left wide open by the defense, so they could double Victor Wembanyama, with 49% of Paul’s 3s this past season being attempted wide open.

In crunch time, Paul played in 28 games and while he wouldn’t help much in scoring during that time, he would help in moving the ball and not turning it over. He tallied 11 assists to just 1 turnover in his crunch time minutes this season.

When looking at his drives data¹, Paul mainly passed the ball on drives before taking shots, but when he did shoot, he shot over 50% on drives. He doesn’t really get to the foul line much anymore, and that’s an area on the floor where the Spurs were bottom-10 this past season. Here’s how his drives data compared to other Spurs guards and wings. Again, his turnover rate stands out here.

Defensively, compared to other Spurs guards and wings, Paul would stand out in deflections, steals, and defensive rebounds in per 36 minutes data.

What would Paul add to the Spurs?

• On offense, Paul would help the Spurs by taking care of the basketball, providing some shooting in-between the floater and mid-range, and by being a veteran player who can get the Spurs into their sets and find Wemby in different locations on the floor.

• On defense, Paul would help the Spurs in deflections and steals, which leads to an area where the Spurs struggled, getting opponents to turn over the basketball.

By adding Paul, what other roster needs would the Spurs still need?

• On offense, the Spurs would still need shooting, because as shown above, defenders would still leave Paul open to shrink the floor for Wemby. Paul also wouldn’t put pressure on the rim or get to the free throw line, two other areas of need for the Spurs.

• On defense, Paul wouldn’t add size (6’0”) and dribble penetration would still be an area of need for the team. Opponents attacking from above kept the Spurs in the bottom-10 of rim makes and opponents shot well on arc 3s.

If the Spurs had interest, would Paul even want to sign in San Antonio?

While rumor states the Spurs have might have interest in pursuing Paul, there’s no perspective from his side. In early May, Paul will be turning 39. At that point in his career, he might be looking to join another playoff-level team to try to win a championship before he retires.

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1. Drives data from NBA.com/stats